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A MOMENT OF APOLOGY, regular readers and fellow Academy Awards sensation-seekers. No doubt you hit this link and then, expecting that you'd have to wait for many megabytes of text and graphics to load in, you reached for a tin of salve or a spool of dental floss or a jigsaw pizzle that you've been meaning to get to. But to your considerable shock and disappointment the page loaded and rendered in seconds. Alas, whereas normally I present a 15-20,000 word multi-hyphenated extravaganza, this year I only had enough time to slam down the bare facts of the matter.
This is the seventh year I've been publishing my Oscar package on the Web. I usually start planning this thing weeks in advance. I make notes on relevant awards races. I make sure I've seen all the nominees, and I go out and see some of 'em again. I reflect on what's unusual about this year's Oscars and I map out a few other articles I'd like to write to accompany the Picks. I check with my lawyers to see if I can indeed claim that MPAA mouthpiece Jack Valenti is actually a parasitic undeveloped twin poking out of the neckhole of a specially-tailored suit worn by his actually quite sane and rational twin brother, Stewie. I mean, I have the receipt from the rural Bavarian sideshow that Jack and Stewie wound up in after their parents sold them, but do I need further corroboration? I'm a man who likes to cross his I's and dot his T's.
Then there are the wardrobe fittings. Yes, I'll watch the Oscars on my sofa, but my wardrobe is deceptively simple. A week before the Oscarcast, major corporations in the hardware, software, and IT infrastructure sectors will be in and out of my house with racks upon racks of tee shirts. Apple impressed me with a vintage OpenDoc mock-turtleneck, but Pixar's NetRenderman tee goes better with my jeans and who could say no to ILM's Star Wars Episode I Visual Effects Crew shirt? And which one got the nod? "People" Magazine's Oscar issue hits newsstands on Thursday; I suggest you pick it up.
But regardless of all that advance preparation, the whole enterprise comes down to two days during the week before the Oscars. That's the time I set aside to sit down and write everything. Last week I reached the designated hour of the designated day. I sat down, I felt the hopes and dreams of dozens of nominees nestled in the palm of my right hand, so fragile, so easily crushed...and then the phone rang. There was a production problem with a book I'm writing, and it needed to be addressed right away.
So I had to spend that time putting out a fire instead of using it to light a match to the aforementioned hopes and dreams. And now here it is, the morning of the Oscars, and this is the best I can give y'all.
But I ask you: don't be sad and disappointed. Let your heart fill with rage and let that rage stoke the fires of revenge until they're as high as an elephant standing on the shoulders of another elephant. Who's wearing those big demon shoes that Gene Simmons wears during stadium shows with KISS.
And once you're quite simply vibrating with fury, I point you at the dried, barely cognizant head of Mr. Jack Valenti. Yes, he tried to make VCRs illegal, promising that they absolutely, definitely spelled doom for the movie industry. And he refuses to allow films to deal with adult situations in a mature way, because Our Nation's Children (defined as: anyone younger than Jack, which is anyone whose souls weren't transposed into trees and rocks by vengeful Norse gods in 1400) will be irreversably damaged by the appearance of genitalia in a feature film, unless of course they're shown floating past the camera in slow-motion after the truck crashes into the oil refinery.
I also have it on good authority that this whole business of showing commercials before the movie was his idea entirely. But the new reason for focusing your anger at him is that the Oscars were moved up a whole month. Used to be at the end of March. This year, it's the end of February. If I had four whole weeks more, boy! Would I have given you an Oscar package big enough to choke a hippo in mid-yodel! But apparently, Jack decided that by shortening the Oscar season he could smudge out yet another bit of filmgoers' happiness.
I insist that Mr. Valenti come to no physical harm. If one of you should work at a dry cleaners' and is in a position to ruin one of his favorite suits by using the wrong acetone formulation on it, well, I suppose I can't be everywhere at once. But I'm appalled by thuggery of any form, no matter who the target is.
Besides: even if we don't give a whit for Jack's wellbeing, think of poor Stewie. Having to hunch down under the collar of his jacket, so that the public never discovers the awful truth about Jack. Even if you were to do something as seemingly harmless as to heave a cream pie right into Jack's face, custard would inevitably drip down into Stewie's neck. It's bad enough having the head of a parasitic partially-formed evil twin sticking out of your back without having to contend with sticky dairy products as well.
So let's not get our (quite sensible) dislike of Jack Valenti overshadow our understanding that if I go 5-for-24 with my predictions and if this entire page reads like rushed, first-draft nonsense...it's entirely not my fault. At any rate: here's this year's Oscar picks. Onward and upward. And remember: tune into my blog during the Oscarcast for live commentary.
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Actor (Leading) |
Ben Kingsley and Jude Law are out. Nobody got to see Ben's film, and Jude's film played to the second balcony but nobody was interested. It could honestly go to either of the three remaining. Murray, because "Lost In Translation" has powerful buzz and it was a role tailor-made for his specific skills; Depp, because the flick made heaps of money and he stole the whole show, plus he won the SAG award; Penn, because he's a respected dramatic actor and "Mystic River" relied on him for most of the heavy lifting. But! Reading from left to right: Not thought of as a dramatic actor; "Pirates Of The Caribbean" was mostly a comedy, and the Academy in its wisdom knows that anybody can play comedy; that whole Iraq thing. Picks: I would vote for Bill Murray, but I predict Sean Penn. Michael Moore's win for Best Documentary last year indicates that the Academy's conservatism is weakening. Plus, Penn's never won an Oscar and he's done a lot of great work this year (viz: "21 Grams.") Finally, when you stack an emotional performance against a (visibly) calm and measured one, the flashier one usually wins. Winner: Sean Penn. |
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Actor (Supporting) |
Picks: A walkover for Tim Robbins. "Mystic River" is up against three films that got zero distribution and one that flopped. It doesn't hurt that Robbins acted the holy crap out of his role, of course, but numbers are numbers. Personally, I'd love for Alec Baldwin to build the entire remainder of his career on roles like "The Cooler"'s casino boss, and I'd love for him to win Oscars for them, too.
Winner: Tim Robbins. |
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Actress (Leading) |
Picks: A walkover for Charlize Theron, who is also my personal pick. Everybody likes Diane Keaton and male voters always like to applaud a commitment to full-frontal female nudity, regardless of age. But Theron's performance was just far too gripping, plus she was playing a real-life person, which only means additional points in any nominee's favor.
Winner: Charlize Theron. |
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Actress (Supporting) |
The Supporting categories drive me batty because nearly anything can happen. A 9-year-old girl can win. Or, it can be a great opportunity for a beloved screen legend to win her first Oscar. Or, it can go to a performance that the voters simply found charming. This one will be between Renee Zellweger and Shohreh Aghdashloo. Both send the Best Supporting-meter into redline: Zellweger should have won Best Actress for either "Chicago" or "Bridget Jones," but she didn't, and she's terribly popular among the voters. But what would be cooler than giving an Oscar to an Iranian actress that no one's ever heard of and will undoubtedly never be heard from again? At the heart of any Supporting Actor/Actoress upset is the fact that it often goes to someone whom the voters simply want to see win. And that could be anyone, for any reason.
Picks: I would choose, and predict, Renee Zellweger. She's well-liked, her role was a colorful one, and few people have even seen "House Of Sand And Fog." Winner: Renee Zellweger. |
| Animated Feature |
Picks: Finding Nemo in a walkover. A "Triplets Of Belleville" upset is possible, but the combination of story, technical artistry and its becoming the top-grossing animated feature in history makes this a near-lock. But gorblimey...when the Best Animated Feature category was created, everyone imagined that it was all a scam to make sure that the company that owns the network broadcasting the Oscars would get could count on at least one award every year. Who would have guessed that Disney Feature Animation would never win this category?
Winner: "Finding Nemo." |
| Art Direction |
Always a fun one, because it's largely box-office-proof. A spectacular art house flick can top a $200,000,000 summer blockbuster, if the props and sets are the cat's pajamas filled with cool beans. It'll probably come down to "The Return Of The King" and "Master And Commander." Ordinarily "King"'s momentum as a Best Picture favorite would give it the edge, but there's a perception that most of the film's visual flair is courtesy of Nintendo. Picks: My prediction and pick is The Return Of The King. Historical dramas always do well in this category, but the sheer scale of "Rings"' undertaking knocks voters out cold. Plus, the nominees were nominated for both of the previous films in the trilogy...and lost. It's time. Winner: "Return Of The King." |
| Cinematography |
Picks: This one goes to Master And Commander. My pick would be "Seabiscuit," however. Bigger challenges, prettier pictures, sumptuous period lighting.
Winner: "Master And Commander." |
| Costume Design |
Even when I have days to suss things out, I'm reduced to flipping a coin (er...a five-sided one) for this category. Sometimes the voters go for the flashiest costumes, sometimes they reward the costumer that helped to sell a period drama by exactly reproducing the styles of the era, and sometimes a designer gets the award because they came up with a dress that became the movie poster, the first shot in the preview, and the reason why thousands of men began looking at their wives with a renewed sense of dissatisfaction. Picks: I'm going to predict The Return Of The King, partly because it's also my personal pick, but mostly because it has the force of two other films' worth of non-wins behind it. Winner: "Return Of The King." |
| Directing |
Picks: Utter walkover for Peter Jackson. He didn't win for either of the previous two "Rings" flicks and as I suspected in my previous two reports...the Academy wants to reward Jackson for the trilogy as a whole. It was shot as one, continuous story anyway. He's also my personal pick, and I feel obligated to add the suffix "Well, duh" to that statement.
Winner: Peter Jackson. |
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Documentary (Feature) |
Another category that defies pigeonholing. Do they honor the film? The filmmaker? The statement? Or will they suddenly decide that the traditional expectation that a documentary filmmaker shouldn't make stuff up is hidebound and old-fashioned? All of these lines of thought have delivered Oscars to various directors' rec rooms. And this year we have a great lineup. "Friedmans" is what a reality-TV show would be like if it were produced by Martin Scorsese (circa 1974) and Ingmar Bergman. "My Architect" is a deeply personal film about the secrets hidden by a famous and complicated man. And it's enough to say that "The Fog Of War" is an Errol Morris documentary. Picks: This one will probably go to The Fog Of War. As a dissection of the thinking that went into our involvement in Vietnam, it's timely. Plus, it's amazing that Errol Morris has done such consistently great work for so many years without winning an Oscar. Can't make a personal pick here because I ain't seen a danged one of 'em. Winner: "The Fog Of War." |
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Documentary (Short Subject) |
Nope, ain't seen none o'these, neither, and unlike the Feature category, I haven't read any reviews. So let's read the synopses. Hmm. The one about Chernobyl sounds like a time-filler that would run on PBS when there's a gap between "Nova" and "Frontline." We're left with the tale of an illegal immigrant, caught with a false passport and facing deportation, telling the harrowing story of the life she fled from in Ghana. And another one in which women riding the Staten Island Ferry put on makeup. Picks: Asylum. Sounds like hot stuff to me. Winner: "Chernobyl Heart." |
| Film Editing |
This category pays off big for those who put lots of thought into their prediction. Before and after the win, the reasons for the Oscar are up there for all to see, and neither politics nor filthy leuchre seem to have much sway. But this year I only have time to write, not to think, so... Picks: The Return Of The King. Another cumulative Oscar. Winner: "Return Of The King." |
| Foreign Language Film |
It's frustrating when you know so little about an entire roster of nominees that even your prodigious stockpiles of ego and arrogance are insufficient to blowhard your way into a pick. Hmph. Onward to the synopses, I suppose. Picks: How about The Twilight Samurai. It's a historical drama about samurai. Bango, you've got connections to both "The Last Samurai" and "Lost In Translation." I'm sold. Next! Winner: "The Barbarian Invasions." |
| Makeup |
Picks: It seems to me that the smart move here would be to not second-guess the makeup-heavy Best Picture frontrunner. The Return Of The King it is, then. My personal pick would be "Monster," which of course didn't get a nomination. Chalk this pick to (a) the fact that I've just seen the film a few days ago and (b) Theron's makeup is so incredible. It's the very definition of good makeup: one single closeup makes you wonder if the real makeup genius is the person who has taken that woman and made her look like Charlize Theron all these years.
Winner: "Return Of The King." |
| Original Score |
Picks: The Return Of The King in a walkover. Also my personal pick, though I'm very fond of "Big Fish"'s score.
Winner: "Return Of The King." |
| Original Song |
A tough race to call, in what's traditionally been a tough category. So many factors, so many reasons for a tune to win or lose. Let's start by eliminating the two songs from "Cold Mountain," because they're sure to become victims of split votes. We should also axe "Belleville Rendez-vous." It's hands-down the catchiest song in the group, but who got a chance to hear it? So it'll come down to either the Annie Lennox song that made people cry when it came up in the movie that's going to win "Best Picture," or the song that was a critical plot point in "A Mighty Wind." Picks: "Into The West," The Return Of The King. This year's picks are an interesting experiment. I'm writing them straight through, top to bottom, and trying to just go with my first instincts. As such, I'm tending to back any "Lord Of The Rings" nomination. Usually the losses I tear my hair out over are the ones where I managed to talk myself out of my first, ultimately correct, choice. So if this year I get 22 out of 24, I'll have to try hard to become far less sophisticated. Oh, and my personal pick for this one would be "Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow." I'm prejudiced towards songs that were integral to the movie, as opposed to the ones that were slung in over the end-credits to help goose up sales of the CD. Winner: "Into The West." |
| Best Picture |
Picks: Another walkover for The Return Of The King. "But Andy, 'Lost In Translation' could upset," you say. "Anything's possible. right?" Bull. Unless the headless torso of a call girl is found in "Return Of The King"'s bed the morning of the Oscars, this award is as good as won. Even if the world goes mad and it doesn't win, I stick by my prediction. When a movie is a critical, popular, and commercial smash; is something of a landmark accomplishment in filmmaking; wins its director the DGA award; is universally acknowledged as the prohibitive favorite to win; is backed by lots and lots of other nominations; and (this is important) has not killed a hooker during a rage-filled gin-and-ether-soaked blackout, at least as far as anyone knows...only a fool bets against it. Plus: it's deserved. If this nine-hour epic were not given Best Picture honors, it'd be time for us to send in the militia and annex the Academy of Motion Picture Arts And Sciences. Because clearly they're no longer competent to rule themselves.
Winner: "Return Of The King." |
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Short Film (Animated) |
The rule here used to be "Don't bet against Aardman Animation," then we hastily added "...or Pixar." And it made us happy and successful. But this year, you have to wonder. Pixar's confidently in the hunt with "Boundin'" but Disney -- hey, remember Disney? They have some cartoon guys workin' for 'em, too, it turns out -- has some real heat in the form of "Destino," a long-shelved collaboration between Salvador Dali and Walt himself. Let's just look at the others to see if they're contenders: "Gone Nutty" is a freebie that you got with the "Ice Age" DVD...it's clearly outclassed by Disney and Pixar's full-court Oscar presses. I downloaded "Harvie Krumpet"'s press kit. I read as far as the bit in the synopsis where the lead character has a testicle removed and that, dear readers, is when the words "Move on; no Oscar-winners to see here; just keep moving" floated before me. Clips from "Nibbles," "Boundin'" and "Destino" are available online and after viewing all three, it's pretty clear that the lone animator who crudely brush-animated a short about fishing will be able to sleep in on the morning after the Oscars and the question "Now how the devil did Renee Zellweger wind up in bed with me?" will remain unasked. Picks: "Boundin'." "Destino" is beautiful and thought-provoking. That comes across loud and clear in the online clips. It's also non-linear and manifestly a Dali headpiece. That's pretty damned clear, too. I think voters will quickly gravitate towards the film with the clear storyline. Winner: "Harvie Krumpet." |
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Short Film (Live Action) |
Yeah, right...like I have a clue. Well, I notice that two of these have foreign-ey sounding titles. Out they go. We passed a law ages ago designating American as the official language of Planet Earth. These people ought to get with the program already. I'm inclined to eliminate "Most (The Bridge)" because the title makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Either the two filmmakers couldn't decide whose title to use and they flipped a coin to see whose would go in parentheses, or "Most" is a foreign-ey name for "Bridge" and they're trying to pull a badger game on me or something. Let's check the IMDB: Aha! It's in Czech and English! But the real liar here is "Squash." The movie is indeed about the game of squash, but it's all in French. Deceiver! I banish thee to the card table at the after-party where folks mutter about what an honor is was just to be nominated!!! Picks: But the IMDB also notes huge feedback ratings for "Most." And I'm half-Czech. Plus, the embassy sent me this thing of oranges, and I already ate two of them, so I suppose I'm committed. Winner: "Two Soldiers." |
| Sound Editing |
Damn. "Lord Of The Rings" wasn't nominated. I thought I'd hydroplane right through this one. How about the one with all those cannons 'sploding and ship sounds and stuff? Aw, butterscotch: that still leaves "Master And Commander" and "Pirates Of The Caribbean." Picks: Give it to the drama -- "Master And Commander." Winner: "Master And Commander." |
| Sound Mixing |
Picks: "The Return Of The King." Ahhhhh. See? Isn't that nice and cozy? You see it on the ballot and you know in a femto-instant how you're going to vote. Just like when Ted Kennedy comes up for re-election. Winner: "Return Of The King." |
| Visual Effects |
Picks: Shift-Command-F8. See how your office productivity skyrockets when you map common glossary phrases such as "The Return Of The King" to handy function keys? Winner: "Return Of The King." |
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Screenplay (Adapted) |
But no, I shan't be using my LotR keyboard macro here. For the Screenplay categories are were the Academy hands out the Best Screenplay Oscars that they're never sober enough to award willingly and openly. Winners can either receive a "Best Screenplay" statuette, or they can receive a "Best Picture" statuette made out of lithographed tin with a clock and a perpetual calendar in its belly. Six of one, half-dozen of the other. Picks: Here's where "Mystic River" will be acknowledged as one of the top dramas of the year. But personally, I'd like to see "American Splendor" recognized. The screenwriters came up with solutions to some unusual creative problems -- chiefly, tell the story through actors, documentary interviews, and animation, sometimes all at once -- and they were as original as they were successful. Winner: "Return Of The King." |
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Screenplay (Original) |
Picks: Walkover for "Lost In Translation." Winner: "Lost In Translation." |
THE FINAL TALLY: Well, I went 19 for 24 this year, certainly a nice outing. My Waterloo was the short films. Normally I actually do pretty well there; by doing a little legwork you can get a sense of where the buzz is going and pick up another couple of ticks in the Win column.
In truth, though, "Best Adapted Screenplay" is the only pick which I felt I really blew. I sensed a desire to acknowledge "Mystic River" with a major award and thought that "Rings"' scale and spectacle would overshadow the strength of its screenplay. Had I taken a little more time, I think I would have bet on a "Rings" sweep. Again, I blame Jack Valenti.
Finally, my live blogcast is permalinked here. And, the telecast being the telecast, the event slopped over slightly into the next morning...so check March's blog archive, too.